Return of Passenger Rail Services
Feasibility Assessment
In their first term in office the Bracks Government promised to return passenger rail services to Ararat, Bairnsdale, Mildura and Leongatha. So far two of these services have returned, while the remaining two are still promised at this stage.
In 1993 when the Kennett Government drastically reduced the size of the passenger rail network there were two other services that were cut that have not been promised to be restored by Bracks. These services are Ararat to Dimboola and Shepparton to Cobram. In fact, I recall a Bracks study finding the restoration of passenger trains to Cobram not being viable while I am not aware of any such study for Dimboola/Horsham.
I have done my own investigation on this topic looking at the potential to attract rail patronage on the four services that were promised to be restored by Bracks, the ones that haven’t and also some others that I also thought were interesting. My analysis is based purely on the assumption that rail patronage is based on the population of the towns that the restored services are proposed to stop at.
In the tables below I have compared the potential populations that could be served by each potential passenger route. I have only included towns with a population of at least 400 people as it is unlikely that stops would be provided at towns with a lesser population than this. Towns designated with a “*” are locations where trains do not currently stop on existing routes or are not proposed to stop on promised routes but qualify on the basis of the 400 people criteria.
Each of the populations are sourced
from the “Know Your Area” website http://www.doi.vic.gov.au/DOI/knowyour.nsf
from the 2001 Census.
Services Promised to be returned by Bracks
|
Sale to Bairnsdale |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Stratford |
1330 |
|
Bairnsdale |
10667 |
|
TOTAL |
11997 |
|
Per Station Average |
5999 |
|
Ballarat to Ararat |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Beaufort |
987 |
|
Ararat |
7052 |
|
TOTAL |
8039 |
|
Per Station Average |
4020 |
|
Ballarat to Mildura |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Creswick* |
2448 |
|
Clunes* |
1091 |
|
Maryborough |
7481 |
|
Dunolly* |
663 |
|
St Arnaud |
2400 |
|
Donald |
1327 |
|
Birchip |
698 |
|
Ouyen |
1157 |
|
Reed Cliffs |
2636 |
|
Irymple* |
1436 |
|
Mildura |
26626 |
|
TOTAL |
47963 |
|
Per Station Average |
4360 |
|
Cranbourne to Leongatha |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Tooradin* |
643 |
|
Koo Wee Rup |
1305 |
|
Lang Lang |
921 |
|
Nyora |
538 |
|
Korumburra |
3037 |
|
Leongatha |
4234 |
|
TOTAL |
10678 |
|
Per Station Average |
1780 |
Other services cut by Kennett
|
Ararat to Horsham |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Stawell |
6142 |
|
Murtoa |
773 |
|
Horsham |
13241 |
|
TOTAL |
20156 |
|
Per Station Average |
6719 |
|
Shepparton to Cobram |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Numurkah |
3382 |
|
Strathmerton |
455 |
|
Cobram |
4554 |
|
TOTAL |
8391 |
|
Per Station Average |
2798 |
Existing Services
|
Bendigo to Swan
Hill |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Pyramid |
498 |
|
Kerang |
3719 |
|
Lake Boga* |
679 |
|
Swan Hill |
9771 |
|
TOTAL |
14667 |
|
Per Station Average |
3667 |
Note that I have not included Eaglehawk or Dingee for this route as there is no population statistic listed for either locality on the “Know Your Area” website. I suspect this is because Dingee has a population of less than 100 and Eaglehawk’s population is included in the population for Bendigo.
|
Bendigo to Echuca |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Elmore |
665 |
|
Rochester |
2624 |
|
Echuca |
10955 |
|
TOTAL |
14244 |
|
Per Station Average |
4748 |
Other Potential Services
|
Toolamba to Echuca |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Tatura |
2931 |
|
Merrigum |
468 |
|
Kyabram |
5534 |
|
Tongala |
1179 |
|
Echuca |
10955 |
|
TOTAL |
21067 |
|
Per Station Average |
4213 |
|
Ararat to Portland |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Dunkeld |
403 |
|
Hamilton |
9128 |
|
Heywood |
1223 |
|
Portland |
9588 |
|
TOTAL |
20342 |
|
Per Station Average |
5086 |
|
Lilydale to Healesville |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Coldstream |
1813 |
|
Yarra Glen |
1371 |
|
Healesville |
7156 |
|
TOTAL |
10340 |
|
Per Station Average |
3447 |
|
Lilydale to Warburton |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Mt Evelyn |
8981 |
|
Wandin |
2838 |
|
Seville |
1605 |
|
Killara |
609 |
|
Woori Yallock |
2003 |
|
Launching Place |
1921 |
|
Yarra Junction |
2210 |
|
Millgrove |
1688 |
|
Warburton |
1997 |
|
TOTAL |
23852 |
|
Per Station Average |
2650 |
|
Epping to Whittlesea |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
South Morang |
4148 |
|
Mernda |
627 |
|
Whittlesea |
2373 |
|
TOTAL |
7148 |
|
Per Station Average |
2383 |
|
Baxter to Mornington |
|
|
Town |
Population |
|
Moorooduc |
3216 |
|
Mornington |
15082 |
|
TOTAL |
18298 |
|
Per Station Average |
9149 |
Based on the above tables it would appear that there are a number of other potential rail services which could be expected to attract a higher patronage than the proposed Cranbourne to Leongatha service.
In particular it appears as though services between Ararat and Horsham, Toolamba and Echuca, Ararat and Portland, and Baxter and Mornington have potential to attract substantially greater patronage.
Obviously there is a need to establish some sort of minimum criteria to suggest whether a potential passenger rail service might be viable. One way of doing this is by exploring some of the existing services. Possible criteria could be that a proposed service extension requires a total population along its route of a minimum 10,000 people and a minimum of 3,000 people per station.
This would support the existing services between Sale and Bairnsdale, between Bendigo and Swan Hill and between Bendigo and Echuca. Interestingly it would not support the recent service that was restored between Ballarat and Ararat.
Using this criteria passenger services could be restored on the following routes:-
Passenger services could not be supported on the following routes:-
Interestingly, the Lilydale to Warburton service could meet the criteria if it only went as far as Yarra Junction and did not include a stop at the relatively small township of Killara (Seville East).
Obviously, a viable passenger rail service is reliant upon more than just the populations of each of the towns it passes through. Service levels would need to be determined based on travel times to Melbourne, connections with other services etc.
Below are some possible service levels for the 7 proposed services being considered in this assessment:-
|
Route |
Service Level |
Infrastructure
Requirement |
|
Ballarat to Mildura |
· 1 service in each direction during the daytime per day (alternative service to Mildura via bus to Swan Hill would leave at different times) · Also provide shorter service only as far as Maryborough as an extension of existing services to Ballarat |
· Upgrade track standard to reduce service time to 6-7 hours |
|
Ararat to Horsham |
· 2 services per day in each direction. · Assuming there is no gauge conversion of Ballarat to Ararat or a new Broad Gauge track from Ararat to Horsham, Ararat to Horsham services would need to be timetabled to meet Melbourne to Ararat services at Ararat |
· None · Alternatively, provide standard gauge track between Ararat and Melbourne via Ballarat or a second broad gauge track between Ararat and Horsham to enable a through service. |
|
Toolamba to Echuca |
· 1 service per day in each direction. (Note that it is assumed that there will also be a daily service to Echuca via Bendigo when this service is restored in late 2006). |
· New platform at Tatura · New station buildings at all stations except Echuca · Upgrade track to appropriate standard for passengers |
|
Ararat to Portland |
· Service could run as an extension of the proposed Ararat to Horsham route providing a through service between Horsham and Portland with a connection to Melbourne at Ararat |
· New station building at Portland |
|
Lilydale to Healesville |
· Provide diesel hauled service similar to existing Frankston to Stony Point service using suburban ticketing with a view to long term electrification |
· Restore bridges between Coldstream and Yarra Glen · Negotiate with existing tourist operator · Restore track to operating standard · Restore platform at Coldstream and construct new station shelter |
|
Baxter to Mornington |
· Provide diesel hauled service similar to existing Frankston to Stony Point service using suburban ticketing with a view to long term electrification |
· Upgrade Moorooduc Hwy level crossing with boom barriers · Negotiate with existing tourist operator · Restore track to operating standard · Property acquisition or tunnelling to restore right of way between Yuillies Road and Mornington Town centre |
|
Lilydale to Yarra Junction |
· Provide diesel hauled service similar to existing Frankston to Stony Point service using suburban ticketing with a view to long term electrification |
· Break lease with Mt Lilydale College for access to rail reservation · Construct new bridge across Maroondah Hwy · Reconstruct Track · Relocate existing rail trail within reservation to be adjacent to rail track · Construct new station buildings |